Investing in Kodak During Bankruptcy
The 131 year old company that invented the personal camera has filed for bankruptcy. For the astute investor it might just be time to consider investing in Kodak during bankruptcy proceedings. As the picture taking world has moved to digital Kodak has had problems keeping up. Even before this foreign companies like Fuji were undercutting the price of Kodak film and cutting into its profit margins. The company is running on credit and running out of that so it has filed for protection while undergoing restructuring. For the individual interested in investing in Kodak during bankruptcy there are a couple of useful things to think about. Like Motorola, this old company has a very large number of patents. In fact, Eastman Kodak has a large number of patents in the digital realm. As in all stock investing a little background is important.
When Kodak decided to catch up in the digital imaging business it eventually filed over a thousand patents. If you are investing in Kodak during bankruptcy you will be largely investing in the value of these patents. Some of them Kodak is selling the rights to and with some of them it is suing to enforce its patent rights. Kodak has already won a lawsuit against LG and has filed patent suits against Apple, Blackberry, RIM, and HTC. As the company states, it could win significant royalty payments if all of the lawsuits work out in its favor. On the other hand Kodak needs to cut its costs and increase its sales of new and old products in order to thrive in the years to come. For one of the old time dividend stocks this is brand new day. This brings up the issue of whether it might be wise to invest in Kodak during bankruptcy only for the short term or long term as well.
Fundamental analysis of Kodak could include some of the following. If Kodak gains significant royalty payments and improves its business picture it could be a great long term play at a currently low price. On the other hand the stock price could pop up with new royalty payments only to languish again if the company cannot reshape itself and regain profits. Kodak has not invested in its traditional film business for eight years. Nevertheless it still sells film. The company has offshore subsidiaries which are not included in the bankruptcy proceedings. The company has about five billion in assets and almost seven billion in debts. Although Kodak has moved into the business of making ink jet printers for both personal and commercial/industrial use it has yet to profit from this business segment. For someone to invest in Kodak during bankruptcy and turn a long term profit Kodak needs to make at least one of its business segments profitable. An attractive aspect of reorganization, for Kodak, would be to reduce its pension fund obligations. This old company has many retired employees and the sum of its pension obligations runs to a quarter of a billion dollars a year. This could be substantially reduced in bankruptcy proceedings. In addition, Kodak is expected to split its business into consumer and commercial parts, making it easier to sell one or both.
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Low Credit Rating Risk
Just how much risk is associated with a low credit rating? The issue of low credit rating risk came to the fore last week when Standard and Poor’s downgraded their credit ratings for nine nations in the European Union. High on the list of investing tips for beginning investors as well as experienced investors is the need for an understanding of low credit rating risk. There are three major credit rating agencies in the United States. They are Fitch, Moody’s, and Standard and Poor’s. These agencies evaluate the creditworthiness of investments. This includes both governmental and corporate issuers of bonds, other forms of debt such as loans issued by banks, and entire bank loan portfolios, and entire nations in regard to doing business and investing. The point of these ratings is to estimate the potential for default on loans, bond payments, or even business failure in regard to investment in projects within nations. The low credit rating issue that is in the news this week is that Standard and Poors has essentially said that nine separate European nations are one step closer to defaulting on their nation debt obligations. France and Austria lost their previously perfect AAA ratings.
What does a low credit rating risk mean for an investor? The amount of investment research that the average investor can do is limited. On the other hand companies such as Fitch, Moody’s, and Standard and Poor’s have analysts whose job it is to make sense of the diverse information, both public and private, that goes into a credit rating. A low credit rating has a high association with a risk of default. We list here the ratings used by the three credit rating agencies and a description of risk.
| Fitch | Moody’s | S&P | Description | |||
| Long-term | Short-term | Long-term | Short-term | Long-term | Short-term | |
| AAA | F1+ | Aaa | P-1 | AAA | A-1+ | Prime |
| AA+ | Aa1 | AA+ | High grade | |||
| AA | Aa2 | AA | ||||
| AA- | Aa3 | AA- | ||||
| A+ | F1 | A1 | A+ | A-1 | Upper medium grade | |
| A | A2 | A | ||||
| A- | F2 | A3 | P-2 | A- | A-2 | |
| BBB+ | Baa1 | BBB+ | Lower medium grade | |||
| BBB | F3 | Baa2 | P-3 | BBB | A-3 | |
| BBB- | Baa3 | BBB- | ||||
| BB+ | B | Ba1 | Not prime | BB+ | B | Non-investment grade |
| BB | Ba2 | BB | speculative | |||
| BB- | Ba3 | BB- | ||||
| B+ | B1 | B+ | Highly speculative | |||
| B | B2 | B | ||||
| B- | B3 | B- | ||||
| CCC | C | Caa1 | CCC+ | C | Substantial risks | |
| Caa2 | CCC | Extremely speculative | ||||
| Caa3 | CCC- | In default with little | ||||
| Ca | CC | prospect for recovery | ||||
| C | ||||||
| DDD | / | C | D | / | In default | |
| DD | / | |||||
| D | / |
Traditionally, investors are interested in long term investment risk. However, investors in the chaotic markets of today are often more concerned with the short term/one year risk of losing their investment capital. A short term low credit rating risk implies that a nation or corporation may be close to insolvency. The S&P downgrade did not have to do specifically with the risk of investing in Austria, France, or the other nations just downgraded. It has to do with the risk of these nations being able to pay their own bills. This specifically is an issue for the EU rescue fund to which all EU nations contribute money. If the EU rescue fund becomes insolvent the rescue of the Southern tier European nations could be in jeopardy. If the EU loses several members the EU itself could be in jeopardy as a political and economic institution. For those interested in investing in European companies or Euro denominated bonds sound fundamental analysis would include evaluation of opportunities with both high and low credit rating risk.
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Greek Financial Collapse
Despite two years of constant and often extreme measures a Greek financial collapse is still possible. German and French leaders, according to press reports, are pressuring Greek leaders as well as private lenders to move forward with necessary measures. These include further write offs by private lenders and solidifying austerity measures by the Greeks. One might wonder why all the fuss about a possible Greek financial collapse. Nations have had to write off debt and revalue their currencies before. The problem here is that the Greek debt issue is tied up with the future of the European Union, the second largest economy in the world. A Greek financial collapse could lead to a breakup of the European Union and financial repercussions across the globe. For the investor this is not just about investing in Euro Zone stocks , bonds or the Euro. It has to do with whether the world pulls itself out of the worst recession in three quarters of a century or falls back into a decade of global depression.
EU leaders are cautioning Greece that it will not continue to get help with its sovereign debt burden unless it agrees with a bond swap with creditor banks. The European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund are not going to shoulder all of the burden and effectively bail out Greece and the unwise investors in its bonds. An unfortunate aspect of this scenario is that the leader of France, Sarkozy, is running for reelection in May of this year. Thus he is fighting two battles at once, dealing with the most serious issue to face the EU in years and trying to keep voters at home happy at the same time. Voters in France and elsewhere on the continent could decide that enough is enough in regard to bailing out any of the southern tier EU nations that are all dealing with excessive debt. If this comes to pass a Greek financial collapse and breakup of the EU could sadly happen. At that time investors might well consider how best to profit from a stock selloff in European markets as well as a decline of the Euro.
To a degree the negotiations between lenders, the Greek government, the IMF, the European Central Bank, and EU leaders resembles a gigantic game of “chicken” with everyone’s car speeding toward a central point, all expecting the others to swerve aside at the last moment. To the degree that voters in Germany, France, and other EU nations view the Greek presence in the EU as optional, these voters could force their leaders to stay a fiscally sound course. The dangerous aspect of all this is that a Greek financial collapse could, in fact, lead to problems in Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland. The bankruptcy of several EU nations could lead to a tightening of credit markets worldwide. This is the worst case scenario that leaders fear. The EU has, in fact, tightened up financial integration across its core 17 members that use the Euro as currency. It has increased European Central Bank power as well. While negotiations on Greek debt continue the EU is clarifying issues relating to tighter fiscal integration among members and the European Central Bank has recently issued two thirds a trillion dollars in loans to banks across the continent in order to stabilize the banking system.
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Profitable Investment Timeline
Success in both short and long term investing often has to do with developing a profitable investment timeline. Investment opportunities come and go. Successful investors routinely carry out fundamental analysis of the stocks, commodities, real estate, and other assets in which they invest. Unfortunately, fundamentals can change quickly in today’s economy. In today’s chaotic markets the smart investor also learns to do technical analysis of market sentiment. Long term, buy and hold, investing looks for long term profitability. This is often not present in a chaotic market. Thus an investor needs to look for a profitable investment timeline each time that he invests. When a publication such as the Wall Street Journal, Forbes, or Barron’s runs an article about a promising stock there is often a positive market sentiment that drives the price of the stock up. If the publication’s analysis is correct the fundamentals of the stock may support the higher price. On the other hand the stock price may rise above what fundamentals support and the price may ricochet back. A long term investor looking for a profitable investment timeline needs to take market sentiment into account when deciding at what price to buy and what price to sell a promising stock. He may choose to hold the stock for years but then he needs to consider the rate of return on his investment.
Businessmen expect to see a strong rate of return on their investments in research, development, marketing, production, and all other facets of their business. Investors should do the same. It should not be a guessing game to invest in stocks. Prices of dividend stocks, for example, tend to follow current and projected interest rates. Long term investors expect to make a return on investment reliably above the rate of inflation. This approach works best with stable stocks, typically large cap stocks. A profitable investment timeline with the likes of Proctor and Gamble can be decades. When investing in small cap growth stocks an investor is commonly looking for a higher rate of return than when investing in stalwarts such as P&G. Without a quarterly dividend check an investor needs to see stock price appreciation in order to stay with a stock. A growth stock may return a hundred fold on initial investment. But, if that takes a decade then the rate of return is substantially less. When investing in such a stock a profitable investment timeline will see early and continuing stock price appreciation.
Many long term investors are good a picking stocks but less skilled at deciding when to sell stocks. A stock with a good margin of safety and intrinsic stock value is a good long term stock pick. However, some stocks grow in fits and spurts. When a stock has had a good run and, perhaps, tripled its stock price, is it time to sit on the stock and collect dividends or sell to take profits and find the next stock. In the end this comes down to calculating the long term return on investment of any individual stock or of an entire portfolio. Whether you are investing in Microsoft patents or investing in Euro Zone Stocks, the most profitable investment timeline for one stock may be years and for another it may be a week.
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Weak Business Software Maker Earnings
Are weak business software maker earnings a harbinger of an economic decline? Oracle fell after the release of a weak earnings report. On that news IBM dropped three percent. Weak business software maker earnings indicate reduced business spending and can be a signal of an impending decrease in economic activity. Fundamental analysis of Oracle shows a 14% fall in stock price on news that it only increased issuance of software licenses by 2% when it had predicted a much higher number. The news that Chinese export figures have fallen and that factory production is down is consistent with a business slowdown. It Europe it seems that they just cannot win. The drama of the more than two year old sovereign debt crisis drags on despite an agreement to amend the EU treaty to allow for closer fiscal integration. The agreements aimed at buttressing up the finances of the so called PIIGS nations (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain) include giving more authority to the European Central Bank to make loans to weak governments and faltering banks. So, the bank just issued $639 Billion in loans to prop up banks. The first reaction of the market was one of relief and stocks rose. They were finally doing something to fix the situation. Then investors started worrying about why the banks needed so much propping up in the first place and stocks fell again.
Although weak business software maker earnings have a few worried there is good news as well. The US housing market is showing signs of life with an uptick in new home construction. Consumer stocks raised slightly, commonly a sign that investors are moving money into safer investments ahead of a retreat in the business cycle. Sometimes the best stock investment in a volatile market is a conservative stock. Earning of consumer stocks typically remain strong during a recession and stock prices raise as investors flee to quality. These companies are commonly dividend stocks as well, often providing a higher percent return than a CD at the bank. The reassuring thing about these stocks is that they may fall slightly in price during an economic recovery but will keep earning money, often more, as more disposable income is available for their products.
Earnings reports commonly drive stock prices up or down after their release. However, it is anticipated earnings that really drive stock prices. Just what does the poor earnings report from Oracle tell us? It may indicate that the company will sell less software in the near future but it does not tell us much about the long term. Here investors need to look at management, product line, research and development, and the degree to which its patents protect the company from competition. The intrinsic value of the company, its forward looking income stream, and its margin of safety, its tangible assets and cash, are better measures of long term price performance. A well-run company with lots of cash and a strong market position will commonly weather a down market and resume its rise when the economy recovers. A little investment research can go a long way in spotting stocks with good intrinsic value and a margin of safety for long term investment.
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Time to Sell Defense Stocks
As the last US base in Iraq closes is it time to sell defense stocks? The US budget is eternally in the red and cuts need to come from somewhere. The US may well reduce troop strength after its nine years in Iraq. Will that translate to less work for and profits for defense stocks? Who are the big defense contractors and how will they fare in the weeks, months, and years ahead? Household names, at least in defense circles, are Raytheon, Northrup Grumman, Lockheed Martin, and Boeing. What makes you a successful investor is the ability to see things coming. Any of these stocks may be great for the long run but any or all may take a hit if congress cuts the defense budget.
If it is time to sell defense stocks let’s begin with a little fundamental analysis of the big ones. Lockheed Martin LTM has traded between $66 and $82 a share for the last year. It pays a $4 a year dividend returning just over 5% at the current share price. The company makes fighter planes and missiles, guidance systems and troop transports, as well as other miscellaneous hardware and systems. Just over a forth each of its net sales come from aeronautics, electrical systems, and information systems with just under a fifth coming from space systems. Northrup Grumman NOC has traded between $49 and $72 a share for the last year. The company makes all US aircraft carriers and produced the first stealth aircraft. It makes numerous stealth drones in the RQ series, including the US RQ-170 Sentinel drone that was lost to Iran. NOC makes fighter planes and bombers, provides technical support for the US ballistic missile program, and makes a variety of electronic warfare devices. It pays a $2 dividend which is three and half percent at the current share price. Raytheon has traded between $38 and $53 a share for the last year and pays a $1.72 dividend which is around 4% at the current share price. The company developed the Patriot Missile and profits from developing ground to air missile systems, air interceptor missiles, and allied products such as electronic and radar systems.
If you have stock in and or all of these and have decided that it is time to sell defense stocks look at Boeing. All three of the companies so far are heavily or totally focused on military products. By comparison Boeing makes commercial jets. Boeing BA has traded between $56 and $80 in the last year. It pays a two and a half percent dividend at the current share price. Although Boeing makes a variety of high tech systems including air to air refueling tankers, space systems such as the second stage to the Aires rocket (using space shuttle and Saturn rocket technologies) it caught the news recently with the sale of its first Dreamliner, the Boeing 787. This jet just set distance records for a commercial jet flight. The development of the new, state of the art, 787 gives Boeing a cushion should the congress and the pentagon decide to drastically cut defense spending. All of the stocks we list are dividend stocks but dividends depend upon continued sales. The fact that Boeing has nearly $800 Billion in back orders on the Dreamliner would appear to be insurance in case of a drop in defense spending. If the US does cut defense spending where will it cut? Certainly companies making bullets and other “low tech” products may see a decline in sales. However, the US has gone the way of “smart systems” in gaining intelligence and pursuing its foes. The huge use of unmanned drones is testimony to that. If you think it is time to sell defense stocks it is time to look at the above companies, system by system, and decide where the cuts are likely to come.
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Increased European Central Bank Power
Will increased European Central Bank power help curb excessive spending and bring the continent’s finances back in line? European leaders met and seventeen nations agreed to treaty changes that will integrate national budgets, although Great Britain opted out. The European Union, envisioned in the dark days after World War II, is gradually moving towards stronger financial union and, hopefully, better fiscal responsibility. Part of the increased European Central Bank power will come from EU bailout funds now to be under ECB control. The news of a more fiscally sound European Union has generated enthusiasm for those investing in Euro Zone stocks as markets responded to the good news a deal among 17 EU members. Nevertheless interest rates of Italian bonds are edging up again, a sign of continued investor concern.
The need for treaty changes and increased European Central Bank power come from the so called “PIIGS” crisis. Over the last couple of years Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain have been dealing with the possibility of default on their sovereign debt. In Greece, especially, the situation has been tense as calls for austerity measures have prompted street riots. Both the governments of Greece and Italy have fallen to be replaced with more financially prudent leaders. The situation in Greece has been such that many anticipate that the country will withdraw from the European Union and use the Drachma again. In fact, the services that provide counter party risk coverage for Forex trading have been running scenarios in anticipate of one or more nations leaving the European Union. As the European debt drama has played out, investors have chosen to buy European stock or sell European stocks depending upon the news of the day. A happy result of the new treaty changes and increased European Central Bank power will likely be a more stable Euro and less chaos in trading Euro Zone stocks.
In the short term the budget cuts necessary to conform to any new European Central Bank requirements for bailout money may be bitter medicine. However, European leaders believe that the long term result will be a cure of recurring issues of national debt. In countries such as Italy and Spain the issue is not necessarily an immediate risk of debt default but high interest rates on debt payments. Such high rates will suck money out of necessary programs and inhibit economic growth. The increased European Central Bank power that will accompany treaty changes will likely result in bailout funds in return for fiscal responsibility, reducing the effects of local politics on budgets. It could also serve to remove continental politics from the equation when deciding to dispense loans to member nations. The wild card to investing in Europe in the new Central Bank era may be the Chinese. Rich with cash, Chinese companies have been looking for deals in the troubled European economy. Chinese investment in Europe could a welcome economic stimulus during these troubled times. It could also become a threat the European economic sovereignty if Europe does not look to protect its companies, especially the high tech sector. Unlike China, Europe does not put curbs on currency flow out of the EU. The long term net result of Chinese investment could be a drain on capital just as the EU starts to recover.
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Invest in Cloud Computing
Is it profitable to invest in cloud computing? The German software company, SAP, thought so and purchased SuccessFactors – SFSF for over $3 Billion USD. A couple of months ago Oracle – ORCL paid $1.4 billion USD for Right Now Technologies – RNOW. These companies choose to invest in cloud computing in order to widen the scope of services they offer their clients. However, it is not all clear that cloud computing is all that profitable. If you are an independent investor and you want to invest in cloud computing we offer a little background and, hopefully, useful insight. As always when investing in relatively new technology one needs to work through a bit of fundamental analysis regarding what a technology does, how a company uses that technology for products or services, and how a company uses the new technology to enhance corporate profits and raise stock prices.
Things You Need to Know in Order to Invest in Cloud Computing
Cloud computing is essentially a marketing term. The so called cloud refers to a composite of applications, platforms and infrastructure. Infrastructure includes auxiliary storage, a network, and extra computing services. Platforms include data bases and the programming languages and programming itself that processes and stores information. Applications are the programs that users currently purchase and install on their servers or personal computers. In cloud computing the user does not buy software programs but rather buys a service that can include programs and many of the IT support services and network infrastructure that a company generally needs to purchase and maintain. Computing has become progressively more complex. The cost of entry into such services can be a progressively more significant part of a company budget. A reason for a company to invest in cloud computing services is that there is a low cost of entry and a predictable monthly cost. If the company no longer needs these services it can cancel its contract and not have to deal with laying off IT personnel and having tens of thousands of dollars of soon to be outdated software that they have no use for. That is the simple outline of cloud computing for a company. But is a cloud computing company a good stock investment?
Should You Invest in Cloud Computing As an Investor?
The companies that Oracle and SAP bought out went at a premium. Certainly anyone who had invested in their stock and profited from the buyout is happy. Cloud computing is a relatively new phenomenon in the computing world. Thus there are startup companies developing not only software but entire management algorithms for the world of cloud computing. If you invest in cloud computing as an investor in a startup company you run the same risks and have the same potential for reward as anyone investing in startups. A review of how to invest in penny stocks may be in order. Certainly an individual investing in any startup company needs to have a clear view of what the company does and how it intends to make money doing it. In order for cloud computing to be truly successful it needs to not only save companies money when they sign up for services. It needs to save companies money over the long run. This can happen if a company does not need to continually upgrade its software, buy new hardware, or employ more and more tech support. However, the proof is in the pudding and anyone who wants to successfully invest in cloud computing needs to follow this story to see how it turns out.
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Buying BAC and Other Bank Stocks
The current ratio of calls to puts on BAC and CITI implies buying BAC and other banks may be profitable in the short run. One of the cues that investors can use in picking stocks for short term investment is activity in the options market. Although calls on CITI outnumbered puts by one and a half to one the call to put ratio of Bank of America – BAC, was closer to five to one. This ratio implies that options traders are expecting the price of the bank stocks to go up. Rather than buying BAC and other bank stocks, options buyers simply purchase a contract which gives them the right to buy the stock, in the case of a call, or sell the stock, in the case of a put, on or before the expiration of the options contract. Because standard options contracts only run for a few months options traders typically do not deal with a longer time horizon. Anyone buying BAC and other bank stocks based on the current put to call ratio need to keep this fact firmly in mind. Following the put to call ratio in the options market can be a good means of picking new winners but it does not tell the long term investor what the picture will be next year or in a decade.
Over the long term investors need to apply fundamental analysis to BAC and other bank stocks in order to decide if they are likely to be profitable over the years. One obvious factor is that these stocks have been beaten down during the recession and are suffering from other factors such as lawsuits by the US government regarding the nature of mortgages that they sold to Freddie MAC and Fannie MAE. If the economy does not right itself and things do badly for these banks they could go bankrupt, need to restructure, and become long term losing propositions. On the other hand the current dismal market may have underpriced these stocks. Thus, buying BAC and other bank stock in the short term could be profitable in the short term.
An alternative to using options as a cue to buying BAC and other bank stocks is to buy call options one’s self. Investors can purchase options on blocks of 100 stocks, pay the current price for the options contract, and the purchase the stock at a nice discount if goes up on price. Some of the best stock investment in a declining market can be scouted out by watching the options market. If an investor buys call options on a stock like BAC he only stands to lose the price of the options contract is the stock takes a nose dive. He is essentially taking out insurance against a fall in stock price. On the other hand, if the stock soars in price, he will execute the options contract and purchase the stock at the contract price, known as the strike price, no matter how high the price may have risen.
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Profit from a Stock Selloff
While debt jitters drive markets lower successful investors ask themselves how to profit from a stock selloff. The traditional way that long term investors profit from a stock selloff is to pick up bargains when a falling tide lowers all ships. This approach requires fundamental analysis of individual stocks prior to the day that the market sells off. An alternative approach is to anticipate a rebound after the market becomes over sold. This approach assumes that all stocks will rebound together and often relies upon technical analysis of overall market sentiment. Our view is that more information usually results in more profit, so we suggest that investors search out and learn about individual stocks that might result in a profit from a stock selloff.
For the investor interested in picking up growing companies, buying companies with strong balance sheets, or investing in companies with cash, there are lots of companies to pick from. If the investor wants profitable, growing, cash rich companies at great stock prices that is another matter. Investors pay a premium for value and great stocks commonly have high price to earnings ratios. Thus many successful investors keep a list of stocks that they have researched. This list includes stocks with two characteristics. One is intrinsic stock value, the growth and earning potential of the company. The other is margin of safety in the form of cash reserves, absence of debt, and unencumbered tangible material assets such as production facilities and real estate, patents, oil or mineral reserves, and other valuable assets not currently producing profit. Such stocks are commonly priced on the high end of the spectrum. These stocks become a much better deal as the market falls, when buying them becomes a way to profit from a stock selloff. Companies like Berkshire Hathaway are commonly in the news when they purchase huge blocks of stock, preferred stock, or whole companies as stock prices fall across the board. Their purchases are certainly not random. The targets of these purchases and takeovers are well researched stocks with intrinsic stock value and a margin of safety.
Successful long term investors know a lot about their stocks. They understand why a stock price has risen and they understand why a stock price falls. When the market falls due to general expectations of bad economic times the stock selloff often takes good stocks down with the bad. The sales and income of a company selling basic consumer products or groceries will commonly not drop off when a recession hits. No matter what the debt rating of the EU or the USA, people will buy hand soap, laundry soap, beans, rice and potatoes. A smart investor knows what his company makes and how its sales will be affected by a recession, how its expansion plans will be affected by a rise in interest rates, and if its research and development efforts are likely to be affected by a need to conserve cash. In order to profit from a stock selloff the successful investor always asks himself what is a good investment based on fundamentals. If a previously expensive but good stock is now very fairly priced it provides a means to profit from a stock selloff even while other investors are running for the door.
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Popularity: 36% [?]